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The Goldbugg Report – July 7, 2009

July 7, 2009

WORLD FINANCIAL REPORT ON RADIO JULY 3 2009 SHOW

-Last chance saloon for gold investors to jump in? The currently stuttering gold price as the northern hemisphere enters the summer season, traditionally a weak time for the gold price, could, some experts believe be the last opportunity to buy gold before an autumnal surge. Read more here-

GOLD

-John Embry explains why the “green shoots” will be short lived and gives some common sense advice on how to navigate these turbulent financial waters. Read more here-
http://www.thedailybell.com/bellPage.asp?nid=431&fl;=0

Daily Bell: How will the financial crisis end?

John Embry: We are currently facing a huge deflationary problem due to the excess debt but with absolutely no restraint on money creation in a pure fiat currency system, I firmly believe the ultimate outcome will be hyperinflation, which is a true human tragedy.

Daily Bell: Will the dollar still be the reserve currency?

John Embry: Not a chance. The U.S. dollar is doomed. The Chinese, America’s largest creditor, are already making their discontent known and are doing unilateral deals with other countries, that effectively eliminate the dollar. When a country that has the responsibility of managing the world’s reserve currency has a federal budget deficit that amounts to 13% of GDP (this year’s projection which may be underestimated) the end is near.

Daily Bell: Would you like to see a return to a gold standard of some sort?

John Embry: I expect when the full catastrophe of the pure fiat currency system is realized, gold will have to be reintroduced into the monetary system to restore confidence.

Daily Bell: Where do you see gold headed pricewise?

John Embry: The extent of the debasement of all the world’s currencies will be the ultimate determinant of how high gold can go. In reality, gold is a constant and it is the value of paper money that declines. In this instance, the world’s reserve currency is doomed and I don’t see another currency that appeals to me. Thus, I expect gold priced in U.S. dollars to trade at many multiples of the current price before this saga comes to an end.

Daily Bell: How about silver?

John Embry: As much as I love gold, I actually think silver will outperform it pricewise, at least in the next few years. Known as the “poor man’s gold”, I think it will reassert itself as money and with continuing robust demand from industrial and medical uses, I suspect it will be in very short supply. Unlike gold, most silver is consumed so shortages could develop very rapidly.

Daily Bell: What would be an ideal portfolio in the current environment?

John Embry: I would always have bullion at the core of a portfolio, to the extent of perhaps 20-25%. However, I would not use ETF’s in general because I’m not sure the gold is all there.

-Gold price will move higher so keep the faith – Sprott Asset Management. Charles Oliver and Jamie Horvat, both senior portfolio managers at Sprott Asset Management, explain how gold will react in the New Financial (dis)Order. Both foresee $2,000 gold in the next three years and, ultimately, “significant” hyperinflation on a global scale over the next decade. Interview with The Gold Report. Read more here- http://www.mineweb.com/mineweb/view/mineweb/en/page56?oid=85595&sn;=Detail or http://www.theaureport.com/pub/na/2751

-John Embry, reasons to own gold. Read more here- http://www.sprott.com/docs/Reports/reasons_to_own_gold.pdf

-Eric Sprott May/June commentary. Read more here- http://www.sprott.com/Docs/MarketsataGlance/June_2009.pdf

-Gold price will rise in real terms Roulston. Newsletter writer and analyst Lawrence Roulston provides his thoughts on the outlook for the economy and what factors impact gold and other metal markets. “As the Western world gets back on track,” says Roulston, “commodity prices will continue higher.” Interview with The Gold Report. Read more here-
http://www.mineweb.com/mineweb/view/mineweb/en/page33?oid=85733&sn;=Detail

-Bulliondesk.com bullion weekly report. Read more here-
http://www.thebulliondesk.com/content/reports/tbd/temp/e-mailrequestversion.pdf

-Chinese Government Wants To Purchase Another $80 Billion Of Gold! Read more here-
http://www.numismaster.com/ta/numis/Article.jsp?ad=article&ArticleId;=6926

-Gold Could Shoot Through $1,000 if China Shifts Away From U.S. Treasury’s. Read more here-
http://www.foxbusiness.com/story/markets/commodities/gold-shoot–china-shifts-away-treasurys/

-Next Stop for Gold Is $2,100 Not $1,300. Read more here- http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1246542892.php

-Investor demand to continue to fuel higher gold price-Scotia Capital. Scotia Capital is calling for “much higher gold and silver prices in the second half of the year and in 2010.”

http://www.mineweb.net/mineweb/view/mineweb/en/page31?oid=85791&sn;=Detail

-Richard Russell: Competitive devaluations to spur on gold. Read more here-
http://www.investmentpostcards.com/2009/06/27/richard-russell-competitive-devaluations-to-spur-on-gold/

-Audit fails to find Royal Canadian Mint’s missing gold. The Royal Canadian Mint, which produces coins for several nations, may have been the victim of a 15.3-million-dollar (13.2-million US) gold heist, an audit concluded Monday. The mint had called in external auditors last month to investigate a discrepancy between the mint’s 2008 financial accounting of its precious metal holdings and its actual stockpile.

Auditors at Deloitte and Touche concluded in report that approximately 17,500 troy ounces of gold, or about 0.32 percent of the mint’s fiscal 2008 throughput, is indeed missing. The unaccounted for difference in gold “does not appear to relate to an accounting error” in the reconciliation process, physical stock count or recordkeeping of transactions during the year, they said. This leaves few unexplored options to explain the missing gold. Read more here-
http://www.gata.org/node/7539 or
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601082&sid;=aKwwOGSy.k1g

-Where’s The Gold? Read more here-
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/nathan-lewis/wheres-the-gold_b_216896.html

-Video of GATA’s presentation to the Vancouver Resource Investment Conference on Sunday, June 7 moderated by Peter Grandich, market analyst for Agoracom.com, and featuring Al Korelin of the Korelin Economics Report, financial newsletter writer Jay Taylor, GATA Chairman Bill Murphy, GATA board member Ed Steer, and your secretary/treasurer has been posted in three parts at YouTube. Watch video here-
http://www.gata.org/node/7544

SILVER

Gold to silver ratio at 80 to 1 with gold at $2,500 the silver price would be $31.25

Gold to silver ratio at 70 to 1 with gold at $2,500 the silver price would be $35.71

Gold to silver ratio at 60 to 1 with gold at $2,500 the silver price would be $41.67

Gold to silver ratio at 50 to 1 with gold at $2,500 the silver price would be $50.00

Gold to silver ratio at 15 to 1 with gold at $2,500 the silver price would be $166.67

-Rising Industrial usage & rebound in investment puts silver in demand. Read more here- http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/Features/Investors-Guide/Rising-Industrial-usage–rebound-in-investment-puts-silver-in-demand/articleshow/4714142.cms

-Ted Butler silver commentary. Read more here- http://news.silverseek.com/TedButler/1246302473.php

-Q2 silver news from the silver institute. Read more here- http://www.silverinstitute.org/images/pdfs/2q09.pdf

-Gene Arensberg: Indicators supportive of gold, silver. Read more here- http://www.gata.org/node/7542

-David Morgan silver commentary. Read more here-
http://news.silverseek.com/SilverInvestor/1245993732.php

-Investment demand for PGMs is expected to remain healthy. CPM predicts the price of the three major platinum group metals is expected to remain as dynamic this year as they have been for the past 18 months. Read more here- http://www.mineweb.com/mineweb/view/mineweb/en/page35?oid=85731&sn;=Detail

-Sen. Crapo proposes equal tax treatment for precious metals. Read more here-
http://www.gata.org/node/7549

CHART OF THE WEEK-QUOTES-QUICK HITS

-Think the housing market is bad in New York City? It is! But it could be a lot worse. Going back to 2006, we still haven’t matched the decline for the rest of the country, according to the Case Shiller 20 City Composite. And pray we don’t end up like Las Vegas. Read more here-
http://www.businessinsider.com/chart-of-the-day-case-shiller-home-price-indices-2009-6

- Rob McInerney and Lucas Bugg of Worldwide Precious Metals back on Metals News: http://www.metalsnews.com/picturegalleries/PicturePopUp.aspx?ID=62342

-At my age (68), the only new venture I’m planning is making sure I wake up every morning. John Embry

-If the bureaucracy is not checked it will tend to build in the name of peace, a defense against every conceivable contingency; so much ’security’ that ‘the secured’ are without resources, helpless and hopeless. Leonard E. Read-Bio here-
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leonard_Read

-The free market punishes irresponsibility. Government rewards it. Harry Browne-Bio here- http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Harry_Browne

-The world’s most powerful investment bank Goldman Sachs is a great vampire squid wrapped around the face of humanity, relentlessly jamming its blood funnel into anything that smells like money. Matt Taibbi, Rolling Stone magazine, June 2009

-Goldman Sachs has engineered every major market manipulation since the Great Depression. Read more here-
http://zerohedge.blogspot.com/2009/06/goldman-sachs-engineering-every-major.html

-’Pretty Boy’ Paulson and the Goldman Gang. Commentary: ‘Public Enemies’ run, not rob, our banks today. Read more here-
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/story/print?guid=982D6862-82E4-45C5-91A2-86B6C0F7604A

-Harry Markowitz, 81, who won the Nobel Prize for economics in 1990 for his work on portfolio theory, says that last year’s collapse reinforces his view that even the most unlikely outcomes are possible in any year.

“The thundering herd is still with us,” said Markowitz, a professor of finance at the Rady School of Management at the University of California, San Diego. “Nature draws into a bushel basket full of returns and finds a next return every year, and I believe there’s another 1929 somewhere in that bushel basket. 2008 was not a refutation, it was a confirmation.” Read more here- http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601213&sid;=aSSzKSJaiuGM

-”By a continuing process of inflation, government can confiscate, secretly and unobserved, an important part of the wealth of their citizens.” J.M. Keynes-Bio here-
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Maynard_Keynes

-Silver at less than $14/oz today remains well below its average price in 1980 of some $20/oz and less than a third of its nominal high price in 1980 of over $50/oz (some $130/oz when adjusted for the significant inflation of the last 29 years). Mark O’Byrne

-Erste Group Research, a division of Erste Group Bank AG in Vienna, Austria, has just published a 53-page special report on gold. Special Report Gold 2009: “In Gold we trust.” We continue to see an outstanding risk/return profile for gold investments. We regard the current consolidation as good buying opportunity and envisage higher gold prices in the medium to long term.

The infamous USD 1,000 per ounce threshold should be clearly passed again in 2009, and positive seasonals should lend further support to the price from the third and fourth quarter. Passing USD 1,300 is our first target, in the long run the price may well pass the inflation-adjusted all-time-high of USD 2,300.

-Volatility should still be expected to continue. We continue to believe that gold and silver are poised for a dramatic move to the upside. The US congress is losing focus on reviving the economy as it tries to lay blame for the decisions that were made in the heat of the financial meltdown. China’s increasing rhetoric about creating a new world currency is gaining ground with more and more countries and the threat of inflation is now looming on the horizon.

We feel that current prices are still very attractive for long term appreciation and those who make acquisitions at these levels and maintain their ability to stay for the long term by not over-extending themselves should achieve their goal of long term profitability and capital preservation through the ownership of precious metals. Trading Department Precious Metals International

-James Moore, of TheBullionDesk.com, wrote that “given the scale of longs already in place and the slow pace of physical demand, gold is still vulnerable to profit taking short-term and may look to consolidate in the $910 to $950 area before pushing towards $1000 again” Casey Daily Resource

-A Commerzbank analysts wrote this week, “It is likely that China will buy further gold over the coming months and years, as, in contrast to other countries, gold still accounts for only a small proportion of China’s entire foreign exchange reserves.”

Many in that country agree. China should buy gold rather than U.S. debt because the Fed’s policies make dollar depreciation inevitable, Li Lianzhong, a senior Communist Party official, told a conference in Beijing last week. Casey Daily Resource

-Ron Paul Wins Support to Audit Fed Reserve. Rep. Ron Paul so far has won 245 co-sponsors to a bill that would require a full-fledged audit of the Federal Reserve by the end of 2010. Read more here-
http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2009/06/24/mr-popular-rep-paul-wins-supporters-fed-sunshine/

-Lawmakers attack Fed for being too secretive. Read more here- http://www.gata.org/node/7534

-China will drive commodities super-cycle: Scotiabank. Read more here- http://www.financialpost.com/story.html?id=1744259

-China’s central bank repeats call for new world currency. Read more here- http://www.gata.org/node/7533

-China, Brazil would exit dollar in bilateral trade. China and Brazil are working on a currency arrangement to allow exporters and importers to settle deals in their local currencies, bypassing the U.S. dollar, the countries’ central banks said on Sunday. Read more here- http://www.gata.org/node/7537

-For five minutes Monday morning CNBC market analysts discussed how obvious U.S. government manipulation of the financial markets has become. If manipulation is obvious to CNBC analysts now, soon even some mainstream gold market analysts may have trouble denying it. You can watch the CNBC segment here- http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=1167028705&play;=1 or
http://www.gata.org/node/7546

-North Korea fired four short-range missiles off its eastern coast today in defiance of United Nations sanctions imposed after a nuclear test, South Korea’s military and a U.S. official said.

The communist state launched the devices from South Hamgyong province at 5:20 p.m., 6 p.m., 7:50 p.m. and 9:20 p.m. local time, said an official at South Korea’s Joint Chiefs of Staff who declined to be identified for security reasons. The action probably was part of a military drill, according to the same official.

North Korea has used such launches in the past to counter international condemnation of its nuclear program. The regime fired six short-range missiles in May, following its detonation of a nuclear bomb. Read more here-
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601110&sid;=a3s0DujPPI9M

-North Korea Exports $800 Million of Arms Illegally, Chosun Says. North Korea has exported $800 million worth of weapons illegally since 2000 to countries including Iran, Syria and Myanmar, the Chosun Ilbo newspaper reported, citing an unidentified South Korean government official.

Kim Jong Il’s regime sold arms including missiles, field guns, rockets and submarines through illegal channels to avoid a U.S.-led program to intercept international shipments of weapons of mass destruction, the South Korean newspaper said.

North Korea used overland routes through China and Russia to avoid detection under the Proliferation Security Initiative, or PSI, according to the report. The U.S. is reviewing ways to prevent North Korea’s illegal weapons exports after the United Nations Security Council adopted sanctions against the communist country following its May 25 nuclear test, Chosun said.

-Judge orders Allen Stanford jailed until trial. Read more here- http://www.reuters.com/article/ousiv/idUSTRE55T6TY20090630

-Bernard Madoff Sentenced to 150 Years for Epic Swindle. Read more here- http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid;=aPDMGOxP0uJQ and
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601082&sid;=apzmc9N7mJkA

-Poll finds Alan Greenspan to blame for credit crisis. Read more here- http://www.reuters.com/article/ousiv/idUSTRE55T1V920090630

-Millionaires’ springtime optimism wilts: survey. Millionaire investors lost their springtime cheer and turned pessimistic in June as worries over the economy and political climate soured the mood, according to an index released on Wednesday.

High rollers became slightly bearish last month, according to the index that measures investment sentiment of the wealthy. The plunge of 18 points to -20 on the Spectrem Millionaire Investor Index in June was a record drop for the index, which was created in 2004. Read more here-
http://www.reuters.com/article/hotStocksNews/idUSTRE5605N720090701

-Warren Buffett lunch sells for $1.68 million on eBay. Read more here-
http://www.reuters.com/article/ousiv/idUSTRE55Q0C920090627

-Meet Buffett’s $2.1 million lunch partner. Hong Kong hedge fund manager Zhao Danyang says the Omaha sage is “so famous, but he’s just like your friend.” Read more here-
http://money.cnn.com/2009/06/26/magazines/fortune/lunch_buffett_danyang.fortune/index.htm

-Warren Buffett donates $1.5 billion Berkshire shares. Read more here- http://www.reuters.com/article/ousiv/idUSTRE56162S20090702

-Woods Tops SI.com’s Highest-Paid Athletes With $100 Million. Tiger Woods remains the top-earning U.S. athlete, making almost $100 million in prize money and endorsements during the past year even though knee surgery kept him off the golf course for eight months, according to Sports Illustrated.

Woods, 33, had $7.7 million in winnings and $92 million in endorsement income to top SI.com’s “Fortunate 50” list for the sixth time in the six years it’s been published by the magazine.

The global economic decline caused average earnings of those on the list to decline for the first time, down $1.5 million per athlete to $23.6 million. Woods, whose off-course earnings declined from $105 million a year ago, ended a marketing accord in November with General Motors Corp. after endorsing GM products including Buick for the past nine years. Read more here- http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601110&sid;=a8owlojq4jnA

WWW.RARECOLOREDDIAMONDS.COM

-The Rare Colored Diamonds Historical Value Tracker system is the perfect tool for investors to view the potential future value of a rare colored diamond based on the current market trend of a particular type of diamond. Track the potential future value of colored diamonds here-

http://www.rarecoloreddiamonds.com/HistoricalPriceTrackingsystem.html

-Watch BTV interview of Harold Seigel on colored diamonds and his website http://www.rarecoloreddiamonds.com/. Watch video here- http://www.rarecoloreddiamonds.com/watchnow.html and
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BWYMJnEz-n4

-Fancy colored diamonds, have appreciated 10-to-15 percent annually since their prices started being tracked in the 1970’s, with reds, purples, pinks and blues commanding even higher premiums. Diamonds.net

-After three months of not processing a single diamond, Australia’s largest diamond mine is now back in production. The Argyle mine is in Western Australia’s far north. Read more here-
http://www.israelidiamond.co.il/english/News.aspx?boneId=918&objid;=5286

-The ultimate jewel of all jewels, from the NYTimes, Monday, December 5, 2005.

Connoisseurship rules. In the rarefied world of fine jewelry, the all-absorbing quest for individuality, that rampant lust for the ultimate, one-of-a-kind exclusivity, is driving discerning buyers toward the rarest and most ravishing of nature’s miracles: colored diamonds.

Regarded until five to 10 years ago as a scientific curiosity, the colored diamond, with its fire and light, its soft, powdery palette of cherry blossom pinks, baby blue, mist gray, gooseberry green, cognac, ochre and so many more, has become the poetic focal point of high jewelry collections around the world. In today’s escalating climate of “super luxe,” the princely colored diamond, beyond precious, beyond fashion, is the ultimate possession.

Melvyn Kirtley, Tiffany’s head gemologist, has been assembling a “critical mass” of colored diamonds for Tiffany over the past few years, building, he says, on the company’s historic ownership of the 128.54 carat canary yellow Tiffany diamond, mined in South Africa in 1877.He explains the enduring appeal: “Colored diamonds are so immensely rare, so remarkable, and although people are more aware of them today, they are still a bit of a secret, something intensely personal. You have to discover them, and, when you do, they open up another world.”

It is this element of personal, secret and understated luxury that makes the colored diamond the perfect gem of the moment. Usually small and subtle, colored diamonds possess a sophisticated, low-key glamour that only the wearer, or another elite connoisseur, can understand. Read more here-
http://www.nytimes.com/2005/12/04/style/04iht-rgem.html

-Always precious, diamonds gain as investment. Diamonds, like art, are a commodity that is gaining attention as an alternative investment. Increases in the price of the rarest colorless and colored diamonds are attracting wealthy investors and structured funds as stock markets and real estate values decline. Read more here- http://www.boston.com/business/articles/2008/07/16/always_precious_diamonds_gain_as_investment/

-Investing in Diamonds: The Terms of Engagement. Diamond investments may turn up profits “in the rough.” Diamond values are not directly linked to stock and bond markets. Diamond prices have increased an average of 15 percent each year since 1949, according to statistics published by diamond manufacturer Ajediam on their company website. “Diamonds do hold their value well,” Chuck Jaffe wrote in his syndicated column last December. “So long as the stone is real, it’s not going to zero like a company headed for bankruptcy.” Read more here-
http://www.nuwireinvestor.com/articles/investing-in-diamonds-the-terms-of-engagement-51499.aspx

JAMES TURK-FIRST HALF OF 2009

-The first half of 2009 is now behind us, so it is time to look at the scorecards. The tables below present the percentage change in gold and silver for the first six months of 2009. For comparison purposes I also include the annual rates of appreciation achieved by gold and silver so far this decade against nine of the world’s major currencies.

Gold % Annual Change
	USD	AUD	CAD	CNY	EUR	INR	JPY	CHF	GBP
2001	2.5%	11.3%	8.8%	2.5%	8.1%	5.8%	17.4%	5.0%	5.4%
2002	24.7%	13.5%	23.7%	24.8%	5.9%	24.0%	13.0%	3.9%	12.7%
2003	19.6%	-10.5%	-2.2%	19.5%	-0.5%	13.5%	7.9%	7.0%	7.9%
2004	5.2%	1.4%	-2.0%	5.2%	-2.1%	0.0%	0.9%	-3.0%	-2.0%
2005	18.2%	25.6%	14.5%	15.2%	35.1%	22.8%	35.7%	36.2%	31.8%
2006	22.8%	14.4%	22.8%	18.8%	10.2%	20.5%	24.0%	13.9%	7.8%
2007	31.4%	18.6%	10.4%	23.0%	17.9%	17.5%	24.7%	21.5%	29.2%
2008	5.8%	32.5%	32.4%	-1.1%	11.9%	30.4%	-14.9%	0.2%	44.3%
Average	16.3%	13.3%	13.6%	13.5%	10.8%	16.8%	13.6%	10.6%	17.1%
(6 mos.) 30 June 2009	4.9%	-9.1%	-0.3%	5.0%	4.1%	3.1%	11.3%	6.8%	-6.8%

Silver % Annual Change
	USD	AUD	CAD	CNY	EUR	INR	JPY	CHF	GBP
2001	-0.1%	8.5%	6.1%	-0.1%	5.3%	3.1%	14.4%	2.3%	2.7%
2002	4.8%	-4.6%	4.0%	4.9%	-11.0%	4.3%	-5.0%	-12.6%	-5.3%
2003	24.0%	-7.3%	1.4%	23.9%	3.2%	17.7%	11.9%	11.0%	11.9%
2004	14.3%	10.2%	6.5%	14.3%	6.4%	8.6%	9.6%	5.4%	6.5%
2005	29.6%	37.7%	25.5%	26.3%	48.1%	34.6%	48.8%	49.3%	44.4%
2006	45.3%	35.3%	45.3%	40.5%	30.4%	42.6%	46.7%	34.8%	27.5%
2007	15.4%	4.1%	-3.1%	8.0%	3.5%	3.2%	9.5%	6.7%	13.5%
2008	-23.8%	-4.7%	-4.7%	-28.9%	-19.5%	-6.2%	-38.8%	-27.9%	3.8%
Average	13.7%	9.9%	10.1%	11.1%	8.3%	13.5%	12.1%	8.6%	13.1%
(6 mos.) 30 June 2009	20.4%	4.4%	14.5%	20.6%	19.5%	18.4%	27.8%	22.6%	7.0%

Here are my observations about gold and silver’s performance so far in 2009.

Silver is clearly outperforming gold. It has risen against all nine currencies, ranging from a low of 4.4% in terms of the Australian dollar to a high of 27.8% against the Japanese yen. Silver’s average appreciation against the nine currencies is 17.2%.
Silver is also doing better this year than its annual averages from 2001-2008 for every currency except the Australian dollar and British pound. Both of these currencies sold off especially hard after the Lehman Brothers collapse last year. So it is understandable that both of these currencies have bounced back strongly, particularly given this year’s resurgence in commodity prices (the CRB Continuing Commodity Index is up 9.8% this year). Consequently, silver’s gains over the past six months were the smallest against these two currencies because of their relative strength.
Gold declined in the first six months of this year against three currencies. These are the two strong currencies – the Australian dollar and British pound – and, gold is also down slightly against the Canadian dollar, another currency hit hard after the Lehman collapse.
Against all nine currencies, gold eked out a 1.9% average rate of appreciation during the first half of the year.
Gold is up 4.9% against the US dollar so far this year. It will be interesting to see gold’s result at the end of the year, and whether it manages to climb against the US dollar for its ninth year in a row.

It is clear from the above tables that gold has been contained during the first half of this year. In contrast, silver is doing exceedingly well. Only time will tell what the second half of the year will bring, but the ongoing debasement of the dollar and other fiat currencies still favors the ongoing accumulation of gold and silver. By doing so, the above tables make clear that you are saving sound money, namely, money that preserves your purchasing power. Read more here-
http://goldmoney.com/commentary-the-first-half-of-2009.html

BLACK SWAN-WE ARE IN THE MIDDLE OF A CRASH

-The financial system is crashing and action must be taken by the US government to convert debt into equity to produce a more stable environment, Nassim Taleb, author of “The Black Swan,” told CNBC Thursday. “You may have green shoots, whatever you want to call them, you may have temporary relief, but you are still in a world that’s breaking,” Taleb said on “Squawk Box.”

Anything that’s fragile like the financial system will eventually crash, he said. “We’re in the middle of a crash,” Taleb said. “So if I’m going to forecast something, it is that it’s going to get worse, not better.” The government needs to deleverage debt and not try stimulus packages that will inflate assets, he said. “What makes me very pessimistic in not seeing any leadership or awareness on parts of government on what has to be done, which is deleverage $40-to-$70 trillion,” Taleb said.

“The monkey on our back is debt,” he added. As an example, Taleb said banks should not be sending demands for larger and larger sums from homeowner in arrears on their mortgage. Instead the bank should offer to lower the monthly payments in return for part-ownership of the property. “People would be able to start from scratch on a healthy basis. You don’t want to wait for foreclosure,” he said. Watch video here-

http://www.cnbc.com/id/31706523

BILL GROSS-ECONOMY TO STAY WEAK FOR A NUMBER OF YEARS

-The slide in employment is representative of what the U.S. economy faces for years to come, Pimco co-chief investment officer Bill Gross told CNBC. A slow-growth scenario continues to play out as consumers who are losing their jobs or are in fear of facing unemployment cut spending and inhibit economic growth, said Gross, who helps manage the world’s largest bond fund at Pacific Investment Management.

He spoke after a government report showed the economy lost 467,000 jobs in June and the unemployment rate moved to 9.5 percent. “Much like we saw with the Depression, attitudes change, and so consumers and investors will now become conservative savers as opposed to spenders,” Gross said in a live interview. “Spending as driven by asset appreciation in terms of houses that game stops, that game has stopped and we must now move in another direction.”

Keeping with his recent forecasts, Gross said real gross domestic product likely will grow at just 1 to 2 percent annually for the next generation or so. In that type of situation, government will have no choice but to keep up its deficit spending programs to keep the economy moving.

“The question becomes, can we maintain that level of spending?” Gross said. “I think it’s necessary over the next year or two simply because the consumer provides a void in terms of the economic hand and so, yes, the government must continue to spend, must continue to provide new forms of stimulus whether it’s in the form of low interest rates and monetary policy or fiscal policy going forward.”

Yet the government also will have to confront the reality of a weakening currency and the problems that will lead to in terms of global investors willing to put money into the U.S. It all adds up to a difficult future, he said. “The talk of three or four months ago in terms of Depression I think is out,” Gross said. “But we are looking at stagflation or some type of stagnation in terms of 1 to 2 percent growth for a number of years.” Watch video here-
http://www.cnbc.com/id/31707377

-The U.S. economy will grow for a few quarters and then contract again, said Martin Feldstein, a professor of economics at Harvard University. “I think we’re going to see a temporary substantial improvement,” Feldstein, the former head of the National Bureau of Economic Research and Reagan administration adviser, said today in an interview on Bloomberg Radio. “I emphasize the words temporary and substantial.”

After the economy shrank at a 5.5 percent annual pace in the first quarter of the year, the change in gross domestic product will be “closer to zero” or “even a small plus” for the April-to-June period, Feldstein said. “We’ll get a bounce for a few quarters and then it will fade out,” Feldstein said. “We’re now going through the getting-better phase for a while.” Read more here- http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid;=agnFzEH.Xsx4

WORLD BANKING SYSTEM

-Banking system like South Sea bubble, says senior Bank of England official. ‘Banking became the goose laying the golden eggs. There is no period in recent UK financial history which bears comparison,’ says executive director for financial stability, Andy Haldane.

A senior Bank of England official today compared the banking system over the last 20 years to the South Sea bubble of the early 18th century and said bankers had merely “resorted to the roulette wheel” to keep up with each other.

The Bank’s executive director for financial stability, Andy Haldane, said in a speech in Chicago that having been stable over much of the 20th century, returns in the banking system relative to the wider stockmarket shot up after 1986 until 2006.

“Banking became the goose laying the golden eggs. There is no period in recent UK financial history which bears comparison,” he said. He said bankers and policymakers became seduced by the excess returns available: “Banks appeared to have discovered a money machine, albeit one whose workings were sometimes impossible to understand.

“One of the South Sea stocks was memorably ‘a company for carrying out an undertaking of great advantage, but nobody to know what it is’. Banking became the 21st-century equivalent.” He said banking returns over the period were magnified by leverage as banks borrowed excessively, he said. Read more here-
http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2009/jul/01/bank-england-south-sea-bubble

Returns on banking shares relative to the wider market

-British banks highly vulnerable to future shocks, Bank of England warns. Britain’s banks remain over-indebted, highly vulnerable and harbour growing funding gaps which leave them susceptible to future shocks, the Bank of England has said. Read more here-
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financetopics/financialcrisis/5639474/British-banks-highly-vulnerable-to-future-shocks-Bank-of-England-warns.html

-China’s banks are an accident waiting to happen to every one of us. Fitch Ratings has been warning for some time that China’s lenders are wading into dangerous water. Read more here-
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/ambroseevans_pritchard/5675198/Chinas-banks-are-an-accident-waiting-to-happen-to-every-one-of-us.html

-Bank failure list tops 45. The FDIC says banks in Georgia, Minnesota and California were shuttered by state regulators. Read more here-
http://money.cnn.com/2009/06/26/news/companies/bank_failure/index.htm?postversion=2009062622 or http://www.bankinfosecurity.com/articles.php?art_id=1583 or
http://www.fdic.gov/bank/individual/failed/banklist.html

-Seven banks fail, pushing 2009 tally to 52. Regulators close six Illinois banks and one Texas bank setting the FDIC back a total of $314.3 million. Read more here-
http://money.cnn.com/2009/07/02/news/companies/bank_failure/index.htm?postversion=2009070219

-Private-equity firms said the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp.’s proposed rules for buyout groups that take over failed banks will dampen interest in such deals. “The FDIC’s proposed guidance would deter future private investments in banks that need fresh capital,” Douglas Lowenstein, president of the industry group the Private Equity Council, said in a statement today.

The FDIC is courting private-equity companies that have about $400 billion to invest while trying to placate lawmakers such as U.S. Senator Jack Reed who have expressed fear that buyout firms may be lax stewards of the banking industry. Private-equity firms pumped more than $1 billion into U.S. banks, 47 of which have been closed by the FDIC this year. Read more here-
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid;=anKbhVnbdOA0

-U.K. Bank Job Cuts Surpass 55,000; More Are Forecast. Read more here-
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid;=ai44ri_p.hB0

-AIG Discloses New Risk on Derivatives Sold to Banks. Read more here-
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid;=aFdfSkR0t0Jo

-Recovery threatened by toxic assets still hidden in key banks. Read more here-

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2009/jun/29/taxpayers-large-losses-toxic-assets

INFLATION-INTEREST RATES

-Alan Greenspan, Inflation the real threat to sustained recovery. Read more here- http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/e1fbc4e6-6194-11de-9e03-00144feabdc0.html

-Hyperinflation Nation Part 1/3. Watch video here- http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SzmYI_4XCbM&eurl;=http%3A%2F%2Fgoldismoney.info%2Fforums%2Fshowthread.php%3Ft%3D386839&feature;=player_embedded

Hyperinflation Nation Part 2/3. Watch video here- http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d4OaUUHdtMA&feature;=related

Hyperinflation Nation Part 3/3. Watch video here- http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZL2pOt28W10&feature;=related

-BIS Sees Risk Central Banks Will Raise Interest Rates Too Late. The Bank for International Settlements said there’s a risk central banks will raise interest rates and withdraw emergency liquidity too late, triggering inflation.

History shows that policy makers “have a tendency to be late, tightening financial conditions slowly for fear of doing it prematurely or too severely,” the BIS, which oversees central banks, said in its annual report published today in Basel, Switzerland. “Because their current expansionary actions were prompted by a nearly catastrophic crisis, central bankers’ fears of reversing too quickly are likely to be particularly intense, increasing the risk that they will tighten too late.” Read more here-
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601068&sid;=aOnSy9jXFKaY

-Fed’s Yellen: rates could be near zero for years. Read more here- http://www.reuters.com/article/ousiv/idUSTRE56009K20090701

-Pimco’s El-Erian Says Federal Reserve Unlikely to Raise Rates. Read more here- http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid;=aNUlQ0AV7r3w

-Trichet Signals ECB Rates Unchanged for Next Months. Jean-Claude Trichet signaled the European Central Bank will keep interest rates at a record low for the coming months as officials deploy new tools to fight the worst recession since World War II.

“The current rates are appropriate,” Trichet said at a press conference in Luxembourg after the ECB left its benchmark rate at a record low of 1 percent. At the same time, he refused to rule out the option of further cuts, saying “we did not decide today that this was the lowest level we would attain under any circumstances.”

The ECB has reduced its main rate by 325 basis points since October to stem the economic slump. The Frankfurt-based central bank also flooded the banking system with hundreds of billions of euros last week and will start buying 60 billion euros ($84 billion) of covered bonds on July 6 to free credit and encourage lending. Read more here-
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid;=aOTyHwRqTilw

-Soros predicts “stop-go” economy and higher rates. Read more here- http://www.reuters.com/article/ousiv/idUSTRE55T4WM20090630

U.S. DEBT-DEFICIT

-Cost of rescues: $835 billion this year. Congressional Budget Office estimates 2009 outlays to stem economic and financial crises. But the bigger problem for the budget looms elsewhere. Read more here- http://money.cnn.com/2009/06/26/news/economy/cbo_federal_budget_outlook/index.htm

-Rising national debt raises prospects of eventual inflation. Read more here- http://www.usatoday.com/money/economy/inflation/2009-06-28-national-debt-inflation_N.htm?loc=interstitialskip&POE;=click-refer

-U.S.’s debtor status worsens dramatically. In the midst of the longest, and probably deepest, postwar recession last year, the U.S. investment position with the rest of the world sharply deteriorated.

At the end of 2008, America’s net international investment position was minus $3.47 trillion, the Commerce Department reported Friday. That represents the difference between the value of U.S. assets owned by foreigners ($23.36 trillion) and the value of foreign assets owned by Americans ($19.89 trillion).

At the end of 2007, the U.S. net international investment position was minus $2.14 trillion. Thus, America’s net indebtedness with the rest of the world increased by $1.33 trillion, or 62 percent, during 2008. It was by far the biggest annual increase in data that go back to 1976.

Foreigners now hold nearly 50 percent of the federal government’s publicly held debt. If foreign investors significantly reduce their purchase of future U.S. Treasury debt securities, without even dumping their current holdings, U.S. interest rates could soar and the dollar could collapse, analysts fear. At minus $3.47 trillion, America’s net debtor status with foreigners represents nearly 25 percent of U.S. gross domestic product, the highest level in history.

“Three decades of massive trade deficits have converted the United States from the world’s banker able to ‘pay any price and bear any burden in the cause of freedom’ to the world’s largest debtor, utterly dependent on China and other foreign interests,” said Charles McMillion, chief economist of Washington-based MBG Information Services.

Essentially, America’s net international investment position is driven by what the United States borrows from the rest of the world to finance its ongoing trade deficit, said Brad Setser, a fellow for geoeconomics at the Council on Foreign Relations. Read more here- http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2009/jun/27/uss-debtor-status-worsens-dramatically/print/

JOB NUMBERS-CONSUMER CONFIDENCE

-No surprise: consumer discretionary companies are highly dependent on consumers having jobs and income. As such, consumer discretionary stocks, as measured by the XLY ETF, fell while new unemployment insurance claims spiked. And, as new unemployment claims have come back to earth, the XLY has jumped. Eventually, for consumer discretionary companies to thrive we’ll actual need to see real gains from consumers gains in jobs and income, neither of which we’re seeing now. Read more here-

http://www.businessinsider.com/chart-of-the-day-unemployment-insurance-claims-vs-consumer-discretionary-spdr-2009-6

-Payrolls Fall More Than Forecast, Unemployment Rises. Employers in the U.S. cut 467,000 jobs in June, the unemployment rate rose and hourly earnings stagnated, offering little evidence the Obama administration’s stimulus package is shoring up the labor market.

The payroll decline was more than forecast and followed a 322,000 drop in May, according to Labor Department figures released today in Washington. The jobless rate jumped to 9.5 percent, the highest since August 1983, from 9.4 percent. Read more here-
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid;=ahfK709b4uds

-U.S. Initial Jobless Claims Fell to 614,000 Last Week. The number of Americans filing claims for unemployment benefits last week fell in line with forecasts, indicating firings remain elevated.

Initial jobless claims dropped by 16,000 to 614,000 in the week ended June 27, from a revised 630,000 the week before, the Labor Department said today in Washington. Read more here-
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601110&sid;=aSAv5b8Tqqzs

-Confidence among U.S. consumers slipped unexpectedly in June, reflecting a weak labour market and rising energy costs. The Conference Board’s sentiment index decreased to 49.3 from a revised 54.8 in May, the New York-based research group said today. The figure was still above a record low of 25.3 reached in February. Another report showed home prices fell at a slower pace in April than in the previous month. Read more here-

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601068&sid;=aL2GQmLUajv4

U.S. PERSONAL INCOME

-Americans are saving and paying off credit card debt at levels not seen in years, but where’s that money coming from? Increasingly, it’s not coming from work. As today’s chart (via David Rosenberg) demonstrates, a staggering proportion of American personal income now comes straight from government transfer payments welfare, unemployment, etc. And thus the process of household debt becoming government debt takes place. Read more here-

http://www.businessinsider.com/chart-of-the-day-govt-transfers-as-a-percent-of-personal-income-2009-6

-U.S. Savings Rate at Highest Point in 15 Years. Read more here-
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/06/27/business/economy/27econ.html

U.K. FINANCIAL CRISIS

-Britain facing biggest deficit in Western world, warns OECD. Hopes that the biggest post-war economic slump will soon end have been dashed after the rich world’s leading economic institution slashed its forecasts for economic growth and warned that Britain next year faces the worst deficit in the industrialised world. Read more here-
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financetopics/recession/5626858/Britain-facing-biggest-deficit-in-Western-world-warns-OECD.html

-The U.K. economy shrank more than previously estimated in the first quarter in the biggest contraction since 1958 as the recession choked industries from construction to services. Gross domestic product fell 2.4 percent from the final three months of 2008, compared with the prior measurement of a 1.9 percent drop, the Office for National Statistics said in London. Read more here-

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid;=aHLN.DQP4SbQ

-Sterling Crisis Looms as U.K. Unravelling Points to Budget Cuts. The state of the U.K. economy fills British financial historian Niall Ferguson with foreboding. “The probability of a real sterling crisis is around one in three, and the probability of major tax hikes and cuts in public spending is roughly one in one,” the Harvard University professor says.

Ferguson’s concern stems from the deterioration in the U.K.’s public finances, which prompted Standard & Poor’s to warn on May 21 that the country could lose its AAA debt rating. The firm estimated the cost of propping up Britain’s banks at 100 billion pounds ($166 billion) to 145 billion pounds and said government debts could double to almost 100 percent of gross domestic product by 2013. Read more here-
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid;=aptnrMueIerQ

CHART OF THE DAY

-Many investors continue to look to the early 1930s for some insight into the current economic/stock market environment. While there are significant differences (global economy, credit default swaps, TARP, FDIC, etc.) between the current environment and that what occurred in the early 1930s, there are also many similarities (bank failures, bankruptcies, severe market declines, etc.).

For some perspective on the current stock market rally that began on March 9th, today’s chart illustrates duration (calendar days) and magnitude (percent gain) of all significant Dow rallies that occurred during the 1929-1932 bear market (solid blue dots). For example, the bear market rally that began in November 1929 lasted 155 calendar days and resulted in a gain of 48%.

As today’s chart illustrates, the current Dow rally (hollow blue dot labeled you are here) is above average in both duration and magnitude relative to the average 1929-1932 bear market rally (hollow red dot). Compared to the current rally, only one 1929-1932 bear market rally was greater in both magnitude and duration and that was the first 1929-1932 bear market rally that began in November 1929. Read more here-
http://www.chartoftheday.com/20090626.htm?T

REAL ESTATE-MORTGAGE-FORECLOSURE

-U.S. housing misery poised to enter new phase. Signs that home prices may have bottomed have stirred hope on Wall Street that the economy is on the mend, yet tight credit and a new foreclosure wave cast doubt on any looming housing revival. Read more here-
http://www.reuters.com/article/wtUSInvestingNews/idUSTRE55P51I20090626

-Housing in Peril as Obama Fails to Get Financing Breakthrough. Driving through Riverside, California, Bruce Norris pointed to a half-dozen empty houses with “For Sale” signs stuck in untended lawns that he said investors might buy if banks would just extend some credit.

“People today look at us as the enemy,” said Norris, 57, head of Riverside-based Norris Group, which purchases and renovates homes to rent or sell. “That’s a big problem for housing because if we can’t get the financing we need, a lot of these properties are going to sit vacant.” Read more here-
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid;=aiZMzULhjTIo

-Home prices in 20 major U.S. metropolitan areas fell in April at a slower pace than forecast, a sign the plunge in real-estate values is abating. The S&P;/Case-Shiller home-price index decreased 18.1 percent from a year earlier following an 18.7 percent drop in March. The measure declined 19 percent in January, the most since the data began in 2001.

Price declines are likely to keep moderating as demand steadies and distressed properties account for a smaller share of transactions. Still, the highest jobless rate in 25 years is contributing to record foreclosures, which are likely to keep depressing values for months to come even as home sales steady.

“It is looking a little bit better,” said Mark Vitner, a senior economist at Wachovia Corp. in Charlotte, North Carolina. “The largest declines are probably past. When prices stop falling the erosion in household wealth will come to an end.”

Eight of the 20 cities showed an increase in prices from March, the most in almost a year, led by a 1.7 percent gain in Dallas. The 20-city measure was down 0.6 percent in April from the prior month, the best performance since June 2008.

Yale University economist Robert Shiller, who co-founded the index, said in an interview with Bloomberg Radio that he sees a “striking improvement” in the rate of decline in the U.S. housing market. He also noted that one measure of investors’ outlook for house prices indicate “the declines are over.” Read more here-
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601068&sid;=aufFvZoxcQ6g

-Pending Sales of Existing Homes in U.S. Increased 0.1% in May. The number of Americans signing contracts to buy previously owned homes rose for a fourth consecutive month in May, a sign the four-year slump in housing sales may be bottoming out.

The 0.1 percent gain in the index of signed purchase agreements, or pending home resales, followed a 7.1 percent rise the prior month that was bigger than previously estimated, the National Association of Realtors said today in Washington. The May reading was up 4.6 percent from the same month a year earlier. Read more here-
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601110&sid;=azoz62A6P434

-Manhattan Apartment Prices Drop as Lehman Hits Home. Manhattan apartment prices dropped for the first time since 2002 in the second quarter as the collapse of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. and Bear Stearns Cos. caught up to property owners in the nation’s most expensive urban market.

The median price fell 18.5 percent from a year earlier to $835,700, New York appraiser Miller Samuel Inc. and broker Prudential Douglas Elliman Real Estate said today. The number of sales plunged by half, the most since Miller Samuel began keeping data in 1989. Read more here-

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601213&sid;=aKJTtME9cUhY

-Hotel Loan Defaults Double as Recession Cuts Travel. As many as one in five U.S. hotel loans may default through 2010 as the recession means companies are spending less on travel and perks, according to University of California economist Kenneth Rosen.

The value of hotel properties in default or foreclosure almost doubled to $17.3 billion in the second quarter through June 24 from $9 billion at the end of the first quarter, data compiled by Real Capital Analytics Inc. show. The New York-based research firm, which began tracking distressed commercial property in November, expects hotel defaults to increase by as much as $2 billion this quarter, said analyst Jessica Ruderman.

“Hotels without question will have the highest foreclosure rate of any commercial real estate sector,” said Rosen, who runs a real estate hedge fund with $310 million in assets and is chairman of the University of California’s Fisher Center for Real Estate and Urban Economics in Berkeley.

Hotel owners are defaulting as room rates and property values tumble and the securitized mortgage market that fueled an 88 percent gain in U.S. commercial prices from 2001 to late 2008 is dormant. Luxury hotel revenue fell 28 percent in April from a year earlier and has dropped for 12 straight months, according to Smith Travel Research Inc. in Hendersonville, Tennessee. The 29 percent decline in March was the biggest since October 2001.

A third of the $8.6 billion in securities backed by hotel loans due in 2010 are at risk of defaulting, data compiled by credit-rating firm Realpoint LLC in Horsham, Pennsylvania, show. Read more here-
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid;=acgd9We.1TEY

-175 California Hotels In Default; Sheraton Keahou Bay Resort in Hawaii Defaults; More Defaults Coming. Read more here-
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2009/06/175-california-hotels-in-default.html

-Delinquency rates on the least risky mortgages more than doubled in the first quarter from a year earlier as U.S. efforts to help homeowners failed to keep pace with job losses that pushed more borrowers toward foreclosure. Prime mortgages 60 days or more past due climbed to 2.9 percent of such loans through March 31 from 1.1 percent at the same point in 2008, the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency and the Office of Thrift Supervision said today in a report.

First-time foreclosure filings on the loans rose 22 percent from the fourth quarter, the report said. “I’m very concerned about the rise in delinquent mortgages and foreclosure actions,” Comptroller of the Currency John Dugan said in a statement released with the quarterly report. Read more here-
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid;=amq8v.M.ak60

-Japan on verge of sub-prime mortgage crisis as summer bonuses plunge. Read more here-
http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/industry_sectors/banking_and_finance/article6578368.ece

-Freddie Mac receives additional $6.1B from gov’t. Battered mortgage giant Freddie Mac received $6.1 billion in new funds from the Treasury Department to help offset its mounting liabilities, according to a regulatory filing submitted Wednesday.

The Federal Housing Finance Agency, which has been operating Freddie Mac since last fall, requested the funds for Freddie Mac after the mortgage firm’s liabilities exceeded its assets by more than $6 billion, according to the filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

After drawing the funds, Freddie Mac has now received $51.7 billion from the Treasury Department and still has access to an additional $149.3 billion to help it finance operations. Read more here-
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090701/ap_on_bi_ge/us_freddie_mac_treasury_5

-Some folks out there still seem to think the housing market is bottoming or even turning around. It’s not. Freddie Mac is out with its latest housing market update, with a wealth of data on the housing market from its perch. One graph that stuck out for us: total delinquencies near 2.5% are way beyond the GSE’s historical norms.

When the numbers for things like delinquencies or foreclosures start to flatten or turn around, we can start talking about a turnaround. Granted, like the Case-Shiller series, some will say this particular chart is 3-months old, though nothing we’ve heard since the end of March suggests things are much different. Read more here-
http://www.businessinsider.com/chart-of-the-day-single-family-delinquencies-2009-6

The Goldbugg Report – July 7, 2009
Posted by Worldwide Precious Metals on Tuesday, July 7, 2009

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